I predict… not quite a riot, but certainly something quite close to that.
Brexit is fast approaching and every day something new happens. We turn on our radios, Brexit. We turn on the TV, Brexit. We read the papers, Brexit.
Brexit. Brexit. Brexit. It’s all we ever talk about and it’s far from over.
They say it’s not worth making predictions in politics, because its ever changing and too fast-paced. Well I’m going to give it a go anyway. (I’ve had to change this piece twice in one week).
Theresa Mays judgement day is fast approaching.
But 11th December was the day that never would have been a monumental day in recent history – but it never came. The vote, was pulled. Whatever the new date of judgement day, it will certainly be an event that will be remembered for many years to come.
May returned to the house with a deal. A deal, which isn’t quite Brexit for Brexiteers and is nowhere near as good as remaining, for Remainers. Its defeat, is imminent and expected to be BIG. Despites Mays best efforts, this is largely undisputed and would need a miracle to be passed.
The house is united against this Conservative government and regardless of the reasons for delaying the vote, support is unlikely to grow any time soon.
The EU, has made it clear this is the only deal on offer and it will be voted on in the New Year.
What happens in the meantime, is all that matters.
Will there be a General Election? Will there be a Second referendum? Will it all end in No Deal?
The Government is undeniably weak and getter weaker by the day.
Just the other week, Theresa May was faced with a vote of no confidence following the delay of the Commons vote. Despite 48 letters being submitted to Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, the no confidence was defeated. 200 – 117 in favour of May and I am at not surprised, that she is still standing .
Although I expected the 48 letter threshold to have been inevitably surpassed at the voting down of Mays deal, the No Confidence vote had been looming for quite some time.
No one in the party that really wants to be leader right now and a contest would only have wasted precious time. I even doubt, whether there would have been a candidate that could have gained enough support from the whole party to win.
May is now unchallengeable for an entire year. One more long, slow, weak, wobbly year of May…
…Unless Corbyn finally issues a vote of no confidence. He has gained support from the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru. They will also lose.
To some people’s relief and certainly to mine, there will be no general election following this. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas and there are some big ole blue, red, yellow and orange turkeys that do not want Christmas this year.
So, the Tory’s have failed to oust May (I hear groans from the European Research Group) and Labour failed to get the election they wanted (I doubt they’d have gained a majority anyway. I doubt they’d do any better at Brexit than May either).
According to the Labour Party Conference held earlier this year, in failing to have an election, the Labour Party will support calls for a second referendum.
The slight problem, is what will that referendum look like?
If Brexit isn’t already complicated enough, it’s about to get a whole lot worse.
May is still standing, but Parliament continues to be in absolute deadlock, with more divisions than a secondary school math book.
It would be carnage to leave the EU without a deal and May knows that the Conservatives will never be forgiven for that. I’m not too sure that they’ll be forgiven for what they’ve done so far, which is why I think the Prime Minister will have to put the option to the electorate.
The more crucial reason, is that Mays arrogance and surety will convince her that the public will overwhelmingly endorse her deal.
But it will see May turn her back on her party and the rest of parliament, though I suspect that many MPs might just welcome this. Calls for a ‘People’s Vote,’ have grown over the past few months.
What will the question be I hear you ask?
Well, it might be like the 2016 referendum, a simply Yes/No question on EU membership and if no is returned its Mays deal? It could be a three-way question, something like Mays Deal/ No Deal/ Remain? Remain, might not even be an option. No Deal, might not even be an option. It could be a Yes/No question on Mays Deal specifically. Though some have questioned whether Mays Deal should feature at all.
If parliament have anything to do with it, then ‘Remain’ will probably be an option and ‘No Deal,’ will as far away from the ballot paper as possible.
I think that May will ensure her deal is an option and she’ll have to rule out No Deal. She couldn’t risk it, polls are suggesting that it is far more appealing, than her own proposition. I also don’t think she’ll be willing to have Remain on the paper, but she’ll have no choice to include it, as Parliament will ensure that it is an option.
It’ll be something like:
“The future relationship of the UK and the European Union, should be:
The deal as negotiated by the British Government, or remaining in the EU under our current status.”
She’s that jammy that I think she’ll win, but only just. Leave means leave, after all.
Of course, this is hypothetical and has many legislative issues, but who knows what will happen?
Her deal will not pass through the Commons, the votes of no confidence will fail and the electorate will have to be asked. Of course there are thousands of alternatives to this prediction, but I think this is the only direction for Brexit, over the next 3-12 months. I think it’s probably the fairest for everyone.
A second referendum benefits all parties. No one will ever be happy, that’s life and whatever the result of the second referendum, there can be no more questions. Its Mays Deal or staying in, we can’t keep asking the question until we get what we want.
I have always said that there are 17.4 million different versions of Brexit, trying to be compressed into one deal. It was never going to be easy. It was never going to happen. It should never have been asked in the first place. The public must be able to decide what our the future relationship with the EU will be.
May must call for a public vote, it’s her only hope.