The 8th of May 2020 will be the day after the 2020 General Election. Theresa May has made it increasingly clear that despite the recent turmoil of the Labour Party, she intends to implement Brexit and her One Nation legislative programme and serve the Conservatives’ full term. I predict what the UK will wake up to the day after the election.

Theresa May’s Conservative Party stormed to victory over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. The results are as follows:

Conservatives: 42% – 371 Seats (168 Majority)
Labour: 25% – 130 Seats
Liberal Democrats: 10% – 5 Seats
UKIP: 12% –ย 26 Seats
SNP: 45% (Scotland) – 49 Seats
Green: 4% – 0 Seats

It was a great night for the Conservative Party. Theresa May was returned as Prime Minister after providing the strong leadership she promised. Many disillusioned Blarite Labour voters were swayed by the One Nation vision that May pursued. She delivered on her promise to tackle inequality and reform the business sector.

The boundary changes that her government had pushed through in 2018 saw the number of MPs reduced to 600, which saw a number of Labour casualties. Throughout the election campaign, it was clear that opinion polls showed a clear led for the Tories as Labour’s socialist platform failed to connect to the electorate.

May’s strong deal from Brexit only aided her vote. She delivered on taking the UK out of the EU in 2019 and thanks to Liam Fox, Secretary for International Trade, had trade deals with India, Australia and Canada prepared. The economic recession that was meant to follow Brexit did not occur, growth was weak in the initial years of 2016 and 2017, but picked up and grew as strong as 3% thanks to the new trade opportunities.ย The deal also meant that some of the traditional Conservative voters that had previously switched to UKIP came back, solidifying much of Essex.

However, it was an appalling night for Labour. After winning the leadership bid for a second time in 2016, Corbyn remained leader and Labour continued to be divided. In the run up to the election, many Labour MPs refused to publically back Corbyn and instead pleaded to the country to return them to government and they would oust him. They refrained as a party from a formal split in the knowledge that would only worsen their prospect.

The worst result for them was the 22 traditional Labour seats in the North of England that were lost to UKIP. After Labour remained left wing and disconnected from their voter base, UKIP, led by Stephen Woolfe, pushed themselves into the British Establishment as a working class man’s party, after reinventing themselves following Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats failed to recover from their poor performance in 2015. They ran on a platform after opposing Brexit for the past 4 years and the public, now at greater ease with Brexit, punished them for it at the ballot Box.

The SNP, now led by Angus Robertson capitalised on Labour’s demise by solidifying their hold on Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon resigned in 2019 after failing to get a second Scottish Independence Referendum or a deal from the EU for Scotland to remain.

After being returned as Prime Minister, Theresa May makes a statement in front of Downing Street. She promises to continue her vision of a One Nation Conservative government, eradicate the remainder of the deficit and continue to invest in infrastructure. She also pledges that the UK will soon sign a free trade deal with President Clinton’s USA and China.

In the immediacy after the vote, Corbyn finally resigns and whilst the Labour Party look for a new leader, they know that the 200 seat lead the Conservatives have will see them in government for some years to come.

6 COMMENTS

  1. Matt, you’ve done a great job here justifying your outcome and on the base of what has been happening in UK politics over the past few weeks. This scenario would have been difficult to predict before the election of the new prime minister. You’ve made one or two predictions beyond that knowledge base, the first being the boundary change in which would see the number of MPs falling drastically, and with the UK’s population rising, I guess this is unlikely. Rather the number of seats would remain the same. The other point is that I would guess Corbyn would go sooner and that Labour wouldn’t risk running an election on his ticket. Either he will be ousted during this leadership challenge or in subsequent ones. I would say that if he doesn’t go, some Labour MPs would either form a new party, based more on Blair’s New Labour, as a credible challenger to the Conservatives. The number of Labour seats seem low and I reckon the SNP may lose a few in Scotland mainly to the Conservatives. It all made great reading material.

    • John, I’m glad you enjoyed the article and your comment was interesting. I still maintain that boundary Change is investable given it was in the Tory Manifesto and is scheduled for 2018. I’m not entirely sure Corbyn will
      Keep his place, but it’s difficult to see him being ousted if he manages to win a second leadership bid. Likewise, I’m not sure Labour would split, they’ll be smart and wait it out.

    • It is actually conservative policy to enforce that boundary change and it is looking likely to be implemented in 2018 ๐Ÿ™‚

  2. On a personal note, I forgot to add that Theresa May’s Government will try to do a deal with the Trump administration ๐Ÿ˜‰

    • Yes, balance of probability Trump will be President. You have to discount US media anti-Trump bias, much the same as UK media anti-Brexit bias, which shows in polling as well as in analysis.

  3. Cameron promised a referendum so the ‘leave’ voters confounded predictions and a stronger Tory majority was returned. A large percentage of the (leavers) electorate are prepared to continue voting Tory as long as they believe the PM is the best conduit for achieving their aims. If this belief is weakened and placed in the balance it will bring about a massive swing to UKIP and change the face of politics within Britain forever.

    The Euro produces a massive surplus within Germany and prevents normal market reactions by cocooning their currency at the expense of others such as Italy or Greece. The duplicity and obvious unfair advantages/disadvantages within the Euro are becoming increasingly obvious and even the Brexit side-show may not be enough to sustain the EU public’s attention long enough to divert them from ending the injustice.
    About half the Eu countries are clamouring to increase security on state borders but this in not reflected in any change to Merkel’s attitude towards the continued free movement of all member state populations. Controlled immigration, associated planning and projected finances are judged crucial by Brexit voters and therefore prevent any continuance of the single market because of Merkel’s unwavering stance.
    We must leave the EEC on day 1 in May thereby by-passing the rules that we cannot parley with any state directly and that future agreements will be subject to the final scrutiny and vote of all EU member nations. Unless we have a spare century to waste this pomposity and high handed attitude has to be confounded from the start.
    Pass me a violin I intend to play but I am unsure of the venue

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