Our Next Government

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In this article I will present to you who I believe will feature in the next Cabinet of the UK Government. It must be noted that these are predictions and, although most are based on rumours, they must not be taken as fact.

Prime Minister – Theresa May
Definitely the easiest prediction of them all, the new Conservative leader will replace Mr Cameron as Prime Minister tomorrow. Unless anything spectacular happens, Mrs May will be in 10 Downing Street tonight, ready to plan her next Cabinet.
Probability – 10/10
Chancellor of the Exchequer – Phillip Hammond
The current Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs is the favourite to take over the Treasury, according to the bookies anyway. Don’t let this put you off though; many in Westminster are certain the 60-year old will take over from George Osborne. Hammond is a steady, almost unexcitable politician, which will help install confidence that he can help steer us through this period of economic uncertainty. Very similar to the Prime Minister, his unflappable style will hold him in good stead for promotion to 11 Downing Street. There are small murmurings that Andrea Leadsom may take reigns over our nation’s finances, although this is now unlikely. Mrs May will probably not want to give a strong rival such a large portfolio and Leadsom remains marred with the ‘motherhood’ scandal. It seems, however, that there is one certainty in Westminster; George Osborne is on his way out of the Treasury.
Probability – 8/10
Foreign Secretary – George Osborne
Despite him being removed from his role as Chancellor, it is likely that Osborne will attempt to take over another large role, possibly in the Foreign Office. With him having served six years as Chancellor, Mr Osborne will have built up strong connections with several finance ministers, which will be useful when trade will top of the next Government’s agenda. By putting Osborne in the Foreign Office, Mrs May will also make sure that a senior Cameroon retains a senior place in the next cabinet. However, this move is definitely not guaranteed for Osborne. Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have both been linked to the job, as well as rumours that Liam Fox may be chosen. Fox has already served as Defence Secretary and has a wealth of contacts in the USA. Furthermore, May and Osborne are known to have an icy relationship and hence she may decide to lock him out of a senior position.
Probability – 6/10
Home Secretary – James Brokenshire
Having served under May for the last six years, it is predicted that Brokenshire will be allowed to put his obtained knowledge to good use as Home Secretary. Working in several roles within the Home Office, it is clear that Brokenshire will have an all-round knowledge of the department and hence promoting him would be the common-sense choice. He has also fared well when defending the Government’s immigration record, highlighting his potential to step up to the role known as a ‘poisoned chalice.’ Despite this, David Davis and Chris Grayling are both rumoured to be strongly interested in the role and the Prime Minister may promote either of them to ease the Brexit section of her party. Either would install a firm line of crime and, with both serving as Shadow Home Secretary, they should be up to the task.
Probability – 6/10
Brexit Minister – Chris Grayling
Mrs May will also have to appoint a minster to her new department which will handle Brexit. She has previously indicated that it would be a Brexiteer and the favourite is her close colleague Chris Grayling. Coming out of the EU Referendum without a tainted image, Grayling could help battle to achieve a good deal for Britain, especially on immigration. If he misses out on the role, vocal Brexit supporter David Davis will be expected to take up the role. The veteran MP has a wealth knowledge and would be more than up to the task of getting the right deal for the UK. Michael Gove will be disappointed if he doesn’t receive the role as Chief Negotiator for Brexit, although he has likely created too much political controversy to be considered for the role, as has Boris Johnson.
Probability – 7/10
Business Secretary – Sajid Javid
Out of all the ins and outs, one minister who may hold their position is the Business Secretary Sajid Javid. Mr Javid has been in the position for little more than a year and he is likely to hold onto his role. Despite most probably aiming for Chancellor, Javid will be seen as an experienced business person who can help calm the nerves of UK businesses. He may also see more trade responsibilities within his department and hence will have a greater role to play in the coming years. However, the steel crisis has considerably damaged the reputation of Javid and this may push the new Prime Minister to demote him. If May decides to dismiss Javid from his role, she may look to her former contender for a safe pair of hands within the business world. Andrea Leadsom was in the business world for 25 year (No, that isn’t an exaggeration) and will be able to provide strong knowledge of the business world when it is needed most. However, in a sign of continuation and stability, Theresa May will likely keep Sajid Javid in his current role.
Probability – 7/10
Education Secretary – Justine Greening
A well-known May supporter, Greening will be expecting a promotion, and a likely destination is into the education role. Despite her current department being lamented for inefficiency, Justine Greening could take Nicky Morgan’s role to help soothe the icy relations between the Government and the teaching unions. She has severed in several roles throughout her Parliamentary career and a move to the Education brief could be a reward for her loyalty to May. However, Morgan may hold on to her role, with her keen to finish off the educational reforms she has embarked on. However, the new Prime Minister may decide she has created too much controversy, with a switch to Chief Secretary to the Treasury likely. Nick Boles would have previously been a favourite for the role, with him having experience in education but also having a modernising approach. Despite this, it will likely be judged that he has created too much controversy over his Leadsom texts, which may have cost him his preferred position.
Probability – 6/10
Health Secretary – Sarah Wollaston
Despite creating controversy by defecting to the Remain side during the referendum, Sarah Wollaston is tipped for promotion, likely to take over from Jeremy Hunt. With her holding a powerful position as ‘Chair of the Commons Health Select Committee,’ she will expect to fill the vacancy that will likely arise. She also has a history in the medical world and is actually still on the medical register. Her experience and loyalty to May should see her promoted to a senior role, likely Health Secretary. If May is determined to go with a continuation theme, she may decide to keep Jeremy Hunt in his current role. However, this would be highly controversial, with the relations between him and junior doctors completely breaking down. A fresh, new face is likely to be installed to help improve relations. If Theresa May doesn’t go for Wollaston as her Health Secretary, a move for Jane Ellison would be likely. Already serving as a junior minister in the Health department, she will have insider knowledge of the department and would be a safe choice for the role.
Probability – 8/10
Defence Secretary – Anna Soubry
Having previously served as a junior minister in the defence department, it is widely expected that Soubry will take the senior job in the Cabinet reshuffle. She was also a strong supporter of May’s and is known for her strong stance, which will come in handy on the world stage during military crises. Over the last few months Soubrys profile has risen considerably and a move to Defence would be a shrewd move for Theresa May. She doesn’t, however, come without her controversies. She has established herself as an outspoken figure, often insulted people in the process. This may be the only stumbling block in her elevation to a senior role. If the new Defence Secretary isn’t Anna Soubry, James Cleverly will have high hopes for promotion. He still serves in the Territorial Army and hence will have first-hand knowledge of the defence role, giving him a real insight into which areas need improved. There are also unlikely rumours that the job could be given to Boris Johnson. This would place Boris in a difficult situation, with the defence brief known as a very difficult one and May could decide to test him in the position. This would, however, be seriously out of character for Theresa May and the move is unlikely to happen.
Probability – 7/10
Works and Pensions Secretary – Stephen Crabb
Having only been in the role for four months, it is widely expected that Crabb will hold on to his current role as Works and Pensions Secretary. Him and Theresa May hold similar ‘one-nation’ views, which will likely lead to her to allowing him to stay on in his role. This will again fit in with the continuation theme, highlighting how Mrs May isn’t going for a grandiose reshuffle. She may, however, decide to remove Crabb from his current role, with him being hit with a ‘sexting’ scandal. In the case of his removal, his deputy Priti Patel would be the favourite to receive promotion. She will have first-hand knowledge of the department and will again be seen as a safe option to Theresa May. Although she backed the losing side at the referendum, she is perceived to have come out stronger, performing well at several debates.
Probability – 8/10
Transport Secretary – Boris Johnson
As a lover of megaprojects and huge infrastructure plans, Boris Johnson would be the perfect man to take over the Transport brief. With it likely that infrastructure spending will rise to boost the economy, Boris will be well positioned to help choose the best projects possible for the UK economy. His best work in London was around transport and he could introduce this on a national scale. If May does not want the light-hearted approach of ‘BoJo’, she could decide to keep Patrick McLoughlin in his current role. He has been a steadfast Transport Secretary and his background fits in perfectly with the one-nation aims of Theresa May. However, the rumours circulating Westminster is that Mr McLoughlin faces demotion.
Probability – 6/10

In other positions, we are likely to see the continuation theme extended. Michael Gove is tipped to continue in his Justice Secretary role, with his one-nation policies similar to those that May holds. Furthermore, he is only halfway through his planned reforms. If he wishes to return to the backbenches, David Davis is being mooted as a potential successor.

Strong rumours are also coming out today that John Whittingdale will be removed from his position as Minister for Culture, Media and Sport. It is believed that May will take the chance to get rid of the Brexiteer, who has been marred in controversy over his personal life. In his place is expected to be Damien Greene, a Europhobe and strong advocate of Theresa May. This will likely lead to a clean break from the ‘war on BBC’ and the license fee will probably survive. There is also suggestions that Boris Johnson could be given the ‘Ministry of Fun’ role, which would most probably suit his personality!

Amber Rudd, the well-known Europhobe, is predicted to continue as Energy Minister. However, she is being tipped for promotion to a senior position, so keep an eye out on her movement, possibly to Health or Education! In the event that she does move, I firmly expect Andrea Leadsom to take over her role, with her already having a junior position within the department. She would be well positioned to handle the agricultural fall out of Brexit and would surely install a stable plan to help protect farmer’s subsidies.

The Secretary of States for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are expected to stay the same. However, a whole range of MP’s are being tipped for promotion, such as Priti Patel, who is expected to take over from Chris Grayling as Leader of the House. Expect fresh new faces such as Michael Ellis, Brandon Lewis and Gavin Williamson to receive promotions too!

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