Swing to Brexit: The Underlining Trends

by Callum Wright

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In the past two weeks the pollsters have been very hard at work in the run up to the EU Referendum, which is now only 1 week away. What they have found is most astonishing however, it’s not the fact that either Leave or Remain are ahead, but the swing and underlining trends.

The swing from Remain to Leave is consistent throughout every poll conducted recently, since the start of June. Today Survation announced a new EU Referendum Poll, I’ll also put up their last poll:

24th May (Phone Poll) – Remain 44%, Leave 38%, Undecided 18%
15th June (Phone Poll) – Remain 42%, Leave 45%, Undecided 13%

Forget whether Remain or Leave are ahead… look at the trend and swing. Remain (-2), Leave (+7), Undecided (-5). You can clearly see that the undecideds are swinging more to Leave than to Remain and even some Remain voters have swung to Leave. But this isn’t the ONLY Poll that shows the same kind of trends, here are some others:

Ipso’s MORI (No Undecided Option):
16th May (Phone Poll) – Remain 57%, Leave 43%
14th June (Phone Poll) – Remain 47%, Leave 53%

Trend & Swing: – Remain (-10), Leave (+10)

YouGov:
5th June (Online Poll) – Remain 43%, Leave 42%, Undecided 15%
9th June (Online Poll) – Remain 42%, Leave 43%, Undecided 15%
13th June (Online Poll) – Remain 39%, Leave 46%, Undecided 15%

Trend & Swing: – Remain (-1), Leave (+1), Undecided (-) (5-9th June)
Trend & Swing: – Remain (-3), Leave (+3), Undecided (-) (9-13th June)
Trend & Swing: – Remain (-4), Leave (+4), Undecided (-) (5-13th June)

ORB (Certain to vote):
25th May (Phone Poll) – Remain 51%, Leave 46%, Undecided 3%
1st June (Phone Poll) – Remain 48%, Leave 47%, Undecided 5%
9th June (Phone Poll) – Remain 48%, Leave 49%, Undecided 3%

Trend & Swing: – Remain (-3), Leave (+1), Undecided (+2) (25th-1st)
Trend & Swing: – Remain (-), Leave (+2), Undecided (-2) (1st-9th)
Trend & Swing: – Remain (-3), Leave (+3), Undecided (-) (25th-9th)

TNS:
19th May (Online Poll) – Remain 41%, Leave 43%, Undecided 16%
7th June (Online Poll) – Remain 40%, Leave 47%, Undecided 13%
Trend & Swing: – Remain (-1), Leave (+4), Undecided (-3)

ComRes:
14th May (Phone Poll) – Remain 52%, Leave 41%, Undecided 7%
9th June (Phone Poll) – Remain 46%, Leave 45%, Undecided 9%

Trend & Swing: – Remain (-6), Leave (+4), Undecided (+2)

So as you can see, the trend is not confound to one method of polling. The polling method seems irrelevant to how people are voting and the swings and trends we are seeing.

I’ve taken the samples of the last 20 Polls (conducted by all pollsters) added them together and split them evenly on their voting intention, these are the results:

Total Polled: 33,244

With Undecided: Leave: 15183 (46%), Remain: 14318 (43%), Undecided: 3349 (11%)

Without Undecided: Leave: 16771 (50.5%), Remain: 15917 (49.5%).

In conclusion, it seems that the momentum is with Leave. Whether Remain are losing voters directly to Leave or Remain are losing voters to Undecideds, these polls prove that Leave is gaining momentum as the EU Referendum looms. There is no certain result we can take from this, it is still very close and anything can happen between now and next Thursday, 23rd June.

Just a few weeks ago people were conceding it would be a certain Remain victory, that is looking less likely as the days progress. One thing is for sure though, it is going to go down to the wire and the country is near enough totally 50/50 Split on the issue.

SOURCECallum Wright
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I am a 22 year old Homosexual Geeky IT Professional with glasses, working for a big global organisation you might have heard of, named IBM. However, when i'm not nerding out (i.e. working), I write political articles instead. I am a black belt in Karate, so don't even try it on! Just kidding... although it's relatively interesting I suppose. I am a pleasantly passionate person when it comes to politics and I align as Right-wing. Some say I am to the right of the Conservative party, some say I am a little bit to the left of UKIP. I say I am socially liberal and fiscally conservative. I have been a member of the Tory Party since 2014, but will respect those from all of the political spectrum! I love a spot of Photography, weather dependent of course. Festivals and concerts are my thing, unless it's opera (Yawn!). So that's a little about me, happy writing or reading and here's to politics!

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